That said, long-term growth in a post-ITC world will be contingent on geographic diversification outside of legacy state markets, as well as technological and business-model innovation to improve product offerings in the solar-plus-storage space. Other Links: Purchase the Full Report | Press Release. Source: Wood Mackenzie / SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight™ is a collaboration between the Solar Energy Industries Association® (SEIA®) and Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables that brings high-quality, solar-specific analysis and forecasts to industry professionals in the form of quarterly and annual reports. Recent policy developments in the Northeast will ultimately spur growth in our long-term outlook. It is likely that not all projects announced in 2019 were able to qualify for the 30% investment tax credit (ITC). There was 6.2 GWdc of new projects announced in Q2 2019, including 2.8 GWdc specifically targeting 2020 COD and 2.3 GWdc targeting 2021 COD. Maryland’s recent renewable portfolio standard (RPS) increase, the removal of South Carolina’s net metering cap, and new incentive programs such as Illinois’ Adjustable Block Program will provide significant upside and growth to our residential forecasts over the next few years. Over the next five years, we expect 82 GW of utility-scale solar to come online, nearly double the amount installed over the last 10 years. While growth in these emerging markets is driven by increasingly attractive project economics, geographic diversification has also resulted in part from a slowdown in Northeast markets. Non-residential installation totals in Q2 2019 were the weakest since Q3 2016. This has brought the cumulative contracted pipeline to a new record total of 48.1 GWdc. While a short-term increase in demand could be inflated by corporate offtakers securing low-priced power-purchase agreements before the ITC steps down, we believe offsite corporate demand will continue to grow across the U.S. as more corporate and industrial offtakers pledge to become carbon-neutral or powered by 100% renewables. Mono PERC module prices finally broke the streak of price increases in Q4 2019, falling by two cents to $0.42/W for utility-scale projects. As a result, the delivered prices for bifacial modules in the U.S. went up in October with the withdrawal of the tariff exemption; they were dropped again after the December temporary injunction. In California, the combination of new-build home solar adoption (which began to gain steam in 2019 and is legally required for most single-family homes starting in 2020) and increasing disaffection with utilities due to public-safety power shutoffs (PSPS) is beginning to drive solar installations, increasingly paired with storage. Since the fourth quarter of 2019 is the first quarter with these new blended system prices, comparing Q4 2019 system prices to previous quarters for non-residential and utility will not be applicable. The cost-competitiveness of utility PV has made it the primary resource for utilities seeking additional energy capacity, as well as those looking to meet more stringent RPS targets. Beginning in H1 2019, these power shutoffs provided a key incentive for homeowners to purchase solar, increasingly paired with storage. Our bottom-up methodology is based on tracked wholesale pricing of major solar components and data collected from multiple interviews with industry stakeholders. This data provides the backbone of this U.S. solar market insight Released December 15, 2020. Learn more about the U.S. Residential solar continues to see healthy installation volumes, growing 15% over 2018 levels – the highest annual growth rate since 2016. The largest share of installations during the record-breaking quarter … In this region, higher levels of solar penetration and resulting steep customer-acquisition costs have slowed installation volumes since the peak installation years as the markets have grown past the segment of early-adopter consumers. Solar Market InsightTM report shows the major trends in the U.S. solar industry. SEIA’s Solar+ Policy Summit is a 2-day, 3-event landmark solar policy blitz in Washington, D.C. Solar+ Policy Forum on December 4th . Solar Market Insight Report. Mono cell prices also declined, indicating an end to the cell supply shortage. The high demand for utility solar is sustained by several factors. The Executive Summary is free, and the Full Report is available individually each quarter or as part of an annual subscription. Starting in Q1 2019, the U.S. The quarterly SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables U.S. Solar Market Insight report series expanded its coverage to include pricing information on mono wafer, mono cells and mono modules, in addition to their multi counterparts. Solar Market Insight reports includes all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Each quarter, we collect granular data on the U.S. solar market from nearly 200 utilities, state agencies, installers and manufacturers. Accordingly, we have made downward revisions to our community solar forecasts. Solar accounted for 40% of all new electricity generating capacity added in the U.S. in 2019. Currently, 3.7 GWdc of the projects expected to come online in 2020 have a corporate offtaker, representing 28% of the 2020 forecast. Media inquiries should be directed to Wood Mackenzie’s PR team (WoodmacPR@woodmac.com) and Morgan Lyons (mlyons@seia.org) at SEIA. To purchase the full report, click here.
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