On behalf of the Renewable Energy to Responsible Energy Initiative, Forum for the Future, WRI India, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Landesa and WWF India are inviting you to join an interactive online event on 25th March to mark the launch of its ‘Call to Action’ report. VAT Reg. The term signals the need to go beyond innovating products or services, and change the fundamentals of how a business makes money. Assembly elections, where the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor What do we foresee for South Asia in 2060, in light of the significant changes it has undergone in the past few decades? In 2020, religion will dominate the political agenda in Kathmandu, with anti-secular campaigns gaining momentum in a region where Hindu nationalism is gaining popularity. Beijing, also fanning greater regional tensions between India and China. As Rajapaksa steers Sri Lanka closer to China politically and financially, his biggest economic challenge will be attracting new investments and strengthening trade ties from a range of countries. First Published 2020. eBook Published 30 December 2020. Joshi's particular future is Gandhian, specifically she calls for local manufacturing of cloth in small scale hut industries. Last year India imposed ninety-five internet blackouts, the most of any country worldwide. Living conditions are improving; we’re on the verge of eradicating polio; basic electrification is within reach for all but a few; the rights of women and girls are more discussed than ever before and the digital revolution is connecting people to a greater world of opportunity. Husain Haqqani. Intriguingly, the government is facing widespread opposition to accepting and utilizing aid from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). Even This gave us wide-ranging perspectives on the different ways the trends could interact, ensuring the scenarios and analysis are plausible, stretching and enable our partner to plan for multiple possible futures in South Asia. Taliban, ensuring they will be a part of some post-agreement government sharing The military has quietly enacted a Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. eighteen months in office. growth through local tourism. Given the tightening As the implementation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stabilization program deepens in its second year, the government will have to enact structural reforms. to another civil war and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian situation. Initial implementation of the exercise has excluded over two million predominantly Muslim individuals in the state of Assam alone, threatening to render them stateless, and Home Minister Amit Shah has publicly supported extending the exercise nationwide through the National Population Register. In Bangladesh, they are directly appointed by the government, supposedly based on their political allegiance to the ruling party instead of their competence. This exercise is exceedingly problematic in India, where millions remain illiterate or do not possess the necessary documentation to prove citizenship. and forestry sectors. On land (clockwise), South Asia is … Wakeel is an intern in the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. a counter to Chinese influence in the region. Pakistan’s economic downturn amid a changing political-military environment presents a challenging agenda for Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party as it enters 2020. The law establishes an expedited path to citizenship for regional asylum-seekers subject to religious affiliation, pointedly excluding Muslims. Most of these refugees have not maintained economic or familial ties to Bangladesh and will need state sponsored help when they arrive. Tensions If passed, India will become the third Malé’s acceptance of foreign support in Asia and Africa, coupled with its demonstrated interest in becoming a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council, implies a transition to new frameworks for reform in 2020. facilitation of talks between the Taliban and the United States Without empowering South Asian women, South Asia's future is bleak. leverage this dynamic to its own benefit, securing benefits from both Should the country once again plunge With debts to China running as high as $3 billion, Solih must look to diversify overall investment or risk sinking the economy. In 2019, the UNP’s poor governance and communication following the tragic Easter Sunday attacks demonstrated a real ineptitude to counter terrorist threats, which ultimately fueled the Rajapaksa comeback with promises of security and unity. Across its eight countries, adherents of all the world’s religions live side-by-side, speaking hundreds of languages and dialects, sharing deep cultural similarities, and celebrating their differences. In 2020, the status of freedom of religion and human rights in Nepal remains ambiguous at best. The Joshi's particular future is Gandhian, specifically she calls for local manufacturing of cloth in small scale hut industries. This policy has led to repeat defaulters facing minimum penalties and, therefore, no new incentives for banks to identify and resolve internal inadequacies. Trevor Cloen, Calling all change makers! is at the center of an evolving geopolitical space in 2020. Bangladesh Bank may have achieved short-term relief with government-funded bailouts and debt restructuring, but they have yet to address the corruption responsible for the crisis. This issue will be further undermined without the extensive, sustained security apparatus complement provided by the United States. Critics and human rights activists argue that the island is unfit for prolonged occupation. Taliban. set of peace talks was subsequently derailed by a Taliban attack. C. Christine Fair. The central government’s extremely limited capacity for essential service delivery is only perpetuated by endemic corruption. While Bhutan’s impressive Provost’s Distinguished Associate Professor, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University . Irfan Nooruddin is director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. This emergence is timely. million in foreign aid from the United States in 2018. The divided opposition will allow President Rajapaksa to steer Sri Lanka politically and financially toward China, as he considers ambitious structural and institutional changes to the Sri Lankan economy and society. Gross domestic product growth has fallen from 8 percent in the second quarter of 2018 to 4.5 percent in the third quarter of 2019, consumer sentiment has fallen dramatically, unemployment has reached a four-decade high, and credit growth has slowed due to the continued questionable health of credit-lending institutions. Working with Levi Strauss and Co using futures techniques to develop global scenarios for a sustainable fashion industry. Expansion Project.” Nepal will continue to rely on investment from its We hope that our thinking sparks debate and discussion, both in the region and around the world among all who desire a peaceful and prosperous South Asia. The country has developed a sophisticated and robust war economy. Today’s south Asia was known as Indian subcontinent before 1947 and the region being colonial byproduct remained very confused from the superpowers point of view.After 9/11 attacks on the United States, south Asia became more visible to the world but more with having negative Home Minister Shah has publicly supported the implementation of country-wide surveillance measures, including overseeing the implementation of the world’s largest facial recognition system, and facial recognition systems and listening devices are increasingly being implemented in public spaces to combat crime. Driven by the rapid growth of its tourism and fisheries sectors in 2019, Malé should continue amending bilateral relations with its traditional partners, including the commonwealth nations and India. With an economy largely dependent on its tourism and hydropower industries, Nepal cannot afford to ignore the threat of climate change. implementation of the MCC Compact could harm the US-Nepal bilateral This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary for its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. Policy on donor acceptance and disclosure. We helped our partner equip themselves with the foresight needed to identify and both prevent and tackle the future sources of vulnerability for children and adolescents in the region. The awards will once again aim to build a platform to showcase regional emerging leaders – those who are not afraid to question stereotypes, break boundaries and drive positive change with courage, hard work and determination. The Forum for the Future is a registered charity and a company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales. Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid warned the world in January that unless immediate financing is received, the Maldives will be underwater within a decade. emphasis on the ecologically-sound hydropower sector and tourism industry could Aparna Pande is Research Fellow & Director of Hudson Institute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. The Kingdom’s economic growth is highly dependent on However, the Personal Data Protection Bill would also permit a dramatic expansion of state access to individual data for purposes related to “the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the Indian state.” Under the current draft legislation, government offices will be equipped with a wide-ranging exemption to restrictions established by the bill, with possible applications to growing use of surveillance technologies for law enforcement purposes. press environment in India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the highly Rajapaksa’s stronghold on the majority Sinhalese vote and commitment towards counterterrorism efforts at home have won popular support. large entity (following the European Union and China) to implement formal legal following the September 2019 election, with President Editor, Strategic Affairs, The Indian Express. Additionally, these turbulent effects are multiplied when viewed through external entities connected to the networks. 2020 could be the year when Khan gets things on track or things could fall apart quickly. A likely Supreme Court ruling in 2020 will have profound implications for Indian secularism and for efforts by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to incorporate religious preference into the Indian state. interference (the so-called minus-one formula). 2017. Aging trends. Trevor Amongst the privileged, issues such as gender equality are seeing massive strides ahead, but amongst the poor issues like access to healthcare continue to hold back key development indicators like maternal mortality. by hoping to promote Nepal as the ideal travel destination and enhance economic (CPEC) construction is underway and the PML-N leads in early polling. Harris work directly with the United States to assist in the Afghan reconciliation New Atlanticist Mark Linscott. This trend could continue throughout 2020 if the government and the Bangladesh Bank address the key issues facing the country with prudence. enters 2020 aspiring to grow its tourism and hydroelectric industry, and Doklam Plateau is a major challenge for Bhutanese foreign policy. A strong Kabul could more easily Edition 1st Edition. The Sino-India rivalry will continue to intensify significantly across the chain of islands in 2020, as China’s investment boom grows. Additionally, while homosexuality is currently criminalized, this has not limited the international movement in support of LGBTQ+ rights from taking hold in Bhutan. markets for investors due to its affordable labor, high profitability, low land country’s deep political fault lines, look for pressure to build in the such as corruption, geographical penetration of its security apparatus, limited State actors are known to have ties to criminal patronage and illicit economy networks, with the state considered to be a “public sector mafia” by some Afghans. Yet, A practical tool based around four future scenarios to help consumer goods organisations plan for the years ahead. 1040519. Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia. Aparna Pande, an expert in South Asia Foreign Policy Defense Strategy at Hudson Institute, a think tank and research center dedicated to nonpartisan analysis of US and international economic, security, and political issues. The critical question to examine is what does South Asia expect in the future from US and China and vice versa. Nepal Amazon. shock-proofing, especially in lieu of Bhutan’s close alliance with New Delhi as It also risks a rippling effect of destabilizing powerful patronage networks across greater South Asia and the rest of the world. As our country analyses make clear, each state faces serious policy and governance challenges that must be addressed in 2020. Khan will need to expand his hitherto limited impact on economic policy by presenting a reform agenda to resuscitate the economy, including establishing a proper economic decision-making process that can operate across the government. These scenarios and recommendations do not represent our vision of a preferred or sustainable future, nor the views, vision or strategy of our client. Myanmar refuses to cooperate with a bilateral agreement signed in 2017, which had committed the two countries to gradual repatriation efforts. A more prosperous but unequal South Asia, divided along lines of religion, nationality and wealth. © 2020 Atlantic Council With economic growth averaging 6 percent over the last two decades, South Asia has one of the world’s most dynamic economies, yet its member states have failed to reap the full benefits by developing strong commercial relations with each other. Trump’s India trip comes up empty on trade: What’s next? Legal and institutional protections have not caught up with the push to implement emerging surveillance technologies, raising the risk of potential abuse by law enforcement or the central government. Nepal’s troubled transition to a federal state will continue in 2020. President Donald J. Trump’s visit to India on February 24—the eighth of any US president—was widely lauded by domestic media in India and produced a series of small deals in arms, energy, and nuclear cooperation. spillover effects and inflame unrest in Pashtun-dominated areas. At the end of last year, Gowher Rizvi, an advisor to the prime minister, implied that the country will take back undocumented Muslim migrants from India, if there is concrete proof that they are Bangladeshi. The Five Capitals Model provides a basis for understanding sustainability in terms of the economic concept of wealth creation or ‘capital’. Rajapaksa’s biggest challenge remains the economy and in 2020 he will need to continue to attract foreign investment despite major economic headwinds. Company No. With Himalayas hosting the third largest ice mass on the earth, feeding six major river systems in Asia, the regional cooperation at South Asia level will have lasting impact on the environmental, energy and livelihoods future of about 1 billion people living downstream in South and South East Asia. Read reviews from world’s largest community for readers. optimism is warranted in watching for a permanent settlement to the dispute Pakistani influence. What is a sustainable business model? Instead of taking measures to address such cronyism, Bangladesh Bank encouraged it further in 2019 by increasing the tenure of board directors and the number of family members allowed to be on the board. also complicates future attempts at diversification and economic However, Colombo’s recent withdrawal from a 2015 resolution calling for an investigation into alleged human rights violations committed during the country’s long civil war puts this preferential access into question. Many expect Rajapaksa to look to Beijing to help deliver his key campaign promise of revitalizing an economy saddled in billions of dollars of debt. Across the country, officials have used colonial-era laws to prevent public protest against the CAA across the country, and cell and SMS services were blocked across pockets of New Delhi. We help you to understand the opportunities, and then how to unlock them. frameworks governing how private entities use and share personal data. Bhutanese refugees who fled to Nepal, its parliament will be deliberating a bill to decriminalize homosexuality, Trump’s India visit: Limited success and cause for concern. The region consists of Afghanistan , Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. must be included in the negotiations, and what can be left until after? This, of course, is a result of the attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001 (9/11 as it is often referred for anonymity before speaking to the media. Environmental by will theoretically bring a “reduction” in Taliban-sponsored violence, foreign No. Praveen Swami. The move comes as the US government’s new Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy paves the way for Sri Lanka to become a player in the region’s growing military competition. landscapes remain as such, or Bhutan’s economy and ecological health will Recently reelected President Ashraf Ghani’s reputation of being an “incorruptible” technocrat has been significantly diminished during his time in office, and this does not bode well for anti-corruption reform in Afghanistan in 2020. Its reliance on In 2020, religion will dominate the political agenda in Kathmandu, with anti-secular campaigns gaining momentum in a region where Hindu nationalism is gaining popularity. South Asia’s economies are powered by an energetic young population eager to embrace 21st century economic opportunities and conscious of their growing centrality to global geopolitical calculations. Shuchismita Samad is a project assistant in the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. In the Bermuda Triangle of future Geopolitics India needs to further cement its inevitability in South Asia beyond 2050 against China and Pakistan, and hence lastly, diplomacy and ruthless tactics need to be combined regionally and globally to mutually inclusive partnerships and as “Great Wall” against political and military brinkmanship of the “Dragon”. with India raise doubts about the sincerity of this gesture, however, Bank’s ease of doing business index, The Kingdom’s economic growth is highly dependent on The coming year will be instrumental in determining The opposition—led by influential party leaders like Bhim Rawal and Pushpa Kamal Dahal from within the ruling National Communist Party (NCP)—has blocked foreign aid directed towards electricity and transportation infrastructure development. will the government accommodate displaced people from India? Khan will need to expand his hitherto limited impact on economic policy by presenting a reform agenda to resuscitate the economy, including establishing a proper economic decision-making process that can operate across the government, Economic desire to expand trade ties with Afghanistan. drastic measures this year to ensure that its superbly well-preserved natural Given this apparent progress made in de-escalation late last year, some In 2020, President of Sri Lanka Gotabaya Rajapaksa will be judged on his past as a polarizing politician—a hero to the Sinhalese Buddhist majority and a loathed figure by the Tamil and Muslim minority. Additionally, Brigadier General Ismail Qaani, the new head of Iran’s Quds Force appointed following his predecessor Qasem Soleimani’s killing by a US drone strike, has previously overseen operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The manner in which the central government responds to public discourse, and civil society’s reaction, will be critical for the health of India’s democratic tradition in the coming year. peripheral groups, however, is questionable at best, as nearly every previous In addition to a slew of other countries, the Maldives declared a climate emergency earlier this year. desire to end the United States’ “endless wars”, The In 2019, the government lost control of its spending and borrowed in record amounts to make up for its failures to mobilize revenues. will push it to loosen these restrictions, even if the political will to do so Hassan is an intern in the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. 2019 during the 2020 budget session. prosperity in Pakistan is unachievable without political stability, making it Fellow (Non-Resident) Publications View all. domestic politics of its much-larger neighbors. Arts & Culture. Two years into the Khan administration, Pakistan has seen mixed progress characterized by a reluctance to stabilize the economy. the other side of the country, 2020 will be a pivotal year for Future Projections . The government plans to address overcrowding in Cox’s Bazar by relocating Rohingya refugees to Bhasan Char, an island three hours from the mainland in the Bay of Bengal. After their failure to get a new deal, the United States and India certainly should turn to other issues in their future engagement on trade. Meanwhile, a financial and foreign aid dependency on India and new year in Afghanistan sees a continuation of challenges domestically, The agreement is the best opportunity available for the beginning of discussions among Afghans of Afghanistan’s future, and of peace after decades of conflict. preservation of Bhutan’s pristine ecology, and the international effects of Climate change, malnutrition, inequality, poverty, ecological degradation. Bhutan boasts the second-best ranking in South Asia in the World Legal disputes over the CAA coincide with ongoing controversy surrounding the National Citizen Registry (NCR), which mandates that residents provide documentation to “prove their presence in Assam or in any part of India on or before 24 March, 1971” in an effort to identify undocumented entrants from Bangladesh. However, as a reward for Islamabad’s cooperation in facilitating Washington’s peace talks with the Taliban, the United States announced it will soon resume the International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs for young Pakistani army officers. climate-sensitive sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and forestry. The Maldives should also engage with emerging regional organizations, like the South Asian People’s Action on Climate Crisis (SAPACC), and bring other vulnerable nations—Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh—together to effectively advocate for smaller nations at the upcoming 2020 UN Ocean Conference. With all of their focus on a handful of issues, mostly involving market access for bilateral trade in goods, the two sides allowed other important issues to fester, and perhaps the best opportunity to begin to develop a record of incremental confidence-building trade outcomes will be found in these areas, such as intellectual property rights, digital services, and better protection and promotion of investment through more transparent and predictable regulatory approaches. of its pristine ecology, which enables the growth of its tourism, agriculture, Fatima Continuing with the theme of international actors in South Asia, in his contribution, Kugelman argues that the United States could bring South Asia into its Indo-Pacific strategy by pursuing two goals in the region: boosting connectivity and tackling terror. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash. Controversial citizenship and social policies by the central government will continue to generate debate and protest among India’s diverse and vibrant civil society. structure in Kabul. The robustness of Provost’s Distinguished Associate Professor, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University . It also has a large tourist economy, attracting visitors from across South Asia to its pristine natural landscapes. It is important for Nepal to comply with the recommendations from the World Bank and UNDP to draft a clear roadmap of the next steps in this process. India’s economy is in the midst of its sharpest slowdown in two decades. We do this by convening transformational collaborations to drive change, by partnering with organisations to help them lead by example, and by building a global community of pioneers and change makers. New Atlanticist Not only is Asia growing richer; as it becomes more integrated, it is also coalescing as a constructive force for global governance. aid support from its southern neighbor—creates higher levels of risk. China continues to strengthen its engagement in the Maldives, outpacing India as the nation’s largest trading partner. with the most recent flareup occurring in and the Taliban. big its slice of the pie politically will be when the United States withdraws, Her books include Self and Sovereignty: Individual and Community in South Asian Islam (2000), Partisans of Allah: Jihad in South Asia (2008), The Pity of Partition: Manto’s Life, Times and Work Across the India-Pakistan Divide (2013) and, with Sugata Bose, Modern South Asia: History, Culture, Political Economy (4 th edition, 2017, Routledge). We drew on expert knowledge from across South Asia to compile three possible scenarios for the future of the region: Frustrated Potential: A more prosperous but unequal South Asia, divided along lines of religion, nationality and wealth. Rajapaksa’s visit to New Delhi in late 2019 was a step in this direction, with India offering to lend Colombo $400 million for infrastructure development.
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