EIA lease cond Fed offs.! /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 25908 endobj 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Million Cubic Feet Ohio Dry Natural Gas Production Figure 2: Ohio Dry Natural … MPUC Agenda Meeting . endobj source: EIA STEO (September 2020) estimates Global oil demand has outstripped supply in Q3 2020 per EIA In Q3 2020, oil demand among OECD economies fell by 4.7 million barrels per day, compared with 2.4 mb/d among Non-OECD economies per EIA %���� to the March STEO, which was published before the pandemic hit, the EIA’s 2020 ethanol production forecast has been reduced by 2.1 BG, and its 2021 forecast has been reduced by 0.4 BG. Projected West Texas The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast for Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $108 per barrel during the first half of 2013, averages $109 per barrel over the second half of 2013 and $102 per barrel in 2014, $5 per barrel and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month’s STEO, respectively. The EIA’s STEO was published on May 9, 2017. EIA expects the electric powersector will add 23.3gigawatts ( ) ofnewwind capacity and 13.7GW utility-scale solar capacity in 2020. Natural Gas Discussion Item . Jean Laherrere 2016! 1970! NASEO-EIA 2018-19 Winter Energy Outlook Webinar October 10, 2018. Thursday, November 10, 2011, 1:30 pm . Understanding Errors in EIA Projections of Energy Demand Carolyn Fischer, Evan Herrnstadt, and Richard Morgenstern Abstract This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. ��Xe��^|�%�4���V��q�����p[��M#ɟ ��3��L��g�d��UidD�����X�(u����_ao_�q��͗��?�x�R�CX&Y�E6w�i������q�������o������?��A�s����Z%w��f�۵�� I�UE��~M���K�*�&B�ȦC�N�̈4��i� 0X���Qg-GG;�Nn �600p)ȄN�9��"�g0SG����/�欍;�p�F��i�A 300! Click to access steo_full.pdf. EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.33/gal in 2016. 7 0 obj 39788 In April 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Association (EIA) released its April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) which documents the broad impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the energy sector, including annual plunges in energy-related carbon emissions, electricity demand, and production of U.S. crude oil and natural gas. 2000! Hydroelectricity in 2012 is on the decline, producing 14 percent less electricity through the first 7 months of this year compared to last year. <>>> The chart above assumes World commercial petroleum stocks are 5200 million barrels in Dec 2011, days of demand is total stock divided by the current month’s actual or forecasted demand (after Jan 2017). Source: EIA STEO, Barclays, DW Analysis $350 bn 7% of supply $2,500 bn 93% of supply * GDP of Germany is $3.5 trn, Italy $2.0 trn World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2013, Oct-Dec averages, excludes OPEC NGLs . 600! EIA FINALLY ACKNOWLEDGES U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS TO RISE 3% IN 2018 CONTRADICTING REPEATED CLAIMS BY TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS THAT EMISSIONS ARE DECLINING Contact: Ken Bossong, 301-270-6477 x.6 Washington DC – In the latest issue of its “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration … Renewable generation reached large gains in 2011, but that increase was due to a very good hydroelectric year. stream %PDF-1.7 The impact of Covid is clear, with reduced energy use in 2020. year! EIA expects electricity consumption in 2021 will be similar to 2020.1 Wholesale Electricity Futures Market . 1950! The Energy Policy Act of 2005 this Note will argue that a multifaceted approach, providing clear objectives and a sound strategy, should be adopted to combat these pressing issues. EIA says 2021 is looking much better. Prices (including effect of shale gas supplies) 1 0 obj a. 1990! The dashed lines indicate each month’s prior 10- year average for October 2008– March 2018. 1940! Note: EIA calculations based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data. EIA expects monthly gasoline prices to decline to an average of $2.06/gal in December 2015. In EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook(STEO), released December 7, 2010, EIA forecast that natural gas marketed production will have increased in 2010 by … @~�^��ډ|pw�L�>�|lV��NU%̧�iY� u�ڐ�����W�6g���@!�~ҥ�21�H���,��T���*�H��n(�I�S�#%4��(6�yz��Ǟ;�U��Fq5r{��a��� n1s�fg6^&�V�/���/W����K9[6����Ey�/z��<2�*��`r�,�\OL>�����8���x�;��܂?x$���$�]P0�7�u�We1��L�s�W� ���`�X�]ՏpK7�����V�x�y�jQnE������[.oh�_`#��/0é��Y V���).�.��k��J ~�6�}���d]�5�V�AY[�\4�)��zC��*K�P���|܀�\�hc%sdv;�Df0�8���Y�r�]��M�ߎ֠�ho�T�k��� k�^� 0M \���W�;E�D�`�,�E� ��p�xR������K�R�E�g��e��(�(�N�١i6Zx3����"1*��PP�J. SUN DAY CAMPAIGN. <>/XObject<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/Annots[ 23 0 R] /MediaBox[ 0 0 612 792] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> ... Download latest PDF … 4 0 obj 49261_Ltrhd.indd 1 6/11/08 12:44:09 AM Nos. 2020! x�̼y|U�?|��}������zO/Ig'�@ Heating and cooling << EIA expectstotal U.S.coalproductionin2020to be 511millionshorttons ( MMst) , 194 oil ! In the latest issue of its "Short-Term Energy Outlook" (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has finally acknowledged that "U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 3.0% in 2018." EIA’s October 2015 Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects calendar year WTI prices of $49.53 per barrel for 2015 and $53.57 per barrel for 2016 (EIA, 2015b), compared to $55.51 per barrel for 2015 and $62.04 per barrel for 2016 from crude oil prices projected in July 2015’s STEO. oil fed GOM EIA! The EIA estimates that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 1. EIA forecaststhatrenewable energy will be the fastest-growingsource of electricity generation in 2020. EIA-Short-Term Energy Outlook ... million b/d in 2016 and 8.2 million b/d in 2017, both unchanged from last month's STEO. 100! /Length1 7 0 R v. cowpaSTUre rIver preServaTIon aSSocIaTIon eT al., Respondents. EIA has some information that would be useful during a gasoline price spike in California • Weekly data – Retail gasoline and diesel prices every Monday, usually by 2 or 3 pm PT 6 0 obj appraisal’s models are from EIA forecasts drawn from their Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). projected total residential energy expenditures for low-income households by primary heating fuel $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 northeast 2001 $1,490 $1,577 $1,161 2004 $1,354 $1,907 $1,139 2005 $1,413 $2,133 $1,152 2010! 19 Demand-Constrained Models … stream Discussion Outline . 3 ethanol production last week was the lowest in 177 weeks.10 EIA expects 2019 ethanol production to fall from 2018 levels—the first annual decrease in nine years.11 Similarly, your Agency’s own data show domestic ethanol production in anuary -August 2019 In the latest STEO, EIA also forecasts Brent crude spot prices should average $53/bbl in 2021 and 2022, compared with an average of $42 in 2020. I assume in the chart above that OPEC crude output is 32 Mb/d in the last three quarters of 2017. aTlanTIc coaST pIpelIne, llc, Petitioner. L��(����F|�T|�n�B�Sy#��?i�O�E���L��Ǿ������;�&���a�n̯�ߗ�Y� ����|E~�*g�@r��+X�D��I�?ٛ_�4�a z�i���9�݃v���A��cl�%x)~Ҡ�������3�A�G�$/��~��df2��n�����cAV�Bנՠ�ѻ�}�!f���%㘧�����\��8z�z\��aߌ�$W�L�~�,r��Կ�4݀6��� �&|�@SK8���)���&|�o�O�M�K0J�1s=�"�e1o�q�]/�'�3u���������F�7�&���\�*V~I����(:_�K�y$h�п��"|�u�Wt���`#�2��s�y�r����7�����:2�l%��4�:;��Թ=��m�}���7�F�%����Z��&�@���*�v������7�8�:������0>�'ב'I��Ϭa^a%��ܨ܂�=�m���Hպj����R|�$�����'�3�@z�A_c7�r|6�'�ix^��V| ���8ގ��w���k�-q��d&���%��~�9� �. 500! %PDF-1.5 <> 2) Energy Overview ‐‐Doug MacIntyre, Energy Information Administration 3) Energy Disruption Scenarios Energy Data and Analysis – Stephen Floga, Argonne National Laboratory 4) Energy Disruption Tracking Systems, Energy Assurance Planning, and Grant Management ‐‐Jeff Pillon, NASEO � �]"� �]tuYuĕEGQ�TWt�wg@DG��:��~ϭ��g���:�[uoUwW��{�=�FY�RĠ���e+m�ɷ��G�6s��Eܸ����Ȕ�W\&?a�% �܃�n��E-���V"d�"�y��WϾ�T�!��S��0g����|jA��}�s`���\�Ѝ�G�,��I���OC��p�tĝ7��-�~t������t'�/�f��Y�?8����,Zx�e-y���{hעKf-zf�� Bk���D����Azͽ�*�Fa�LG� ��c DCX�J������[�FcG6�HAr��Y�:��������{��B��n��f���(�E��*AI�FT��P�� EIA estimates that total U.S. crude oil production declined by 40,000 barrels per day (b/d) in October compared with September. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2021 1 Note: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on Thursday March 4, 2021 March 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook Forecast highlights Global liquid fuels • The March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of Through the first 7 months of 2012 hydroelectricity produced 30 billion kilowatt hours less electricity than through the first 7 months of 2011. Outlook for 2011-2012 . EIA estimates that crude oil production for May 2016 averaged 8.7 million b/d, which is more than 0.2 million b/d below the April 2016 level, and source: ornl tabulation based on eia steo and recs millions of dollars. Energy supply and demand is often dependent upon weather -related variables. x��\[o�H�~�������i6��d��8q2Y��g�^�C��L[�d��V]��.�黺�n�E#=}�4�bYވ��盦��������)|s��U,��ǧׯ���]�O�,�5[��|V�����$�=��L|^���>��o��=~U4@X����x7?If7s�;�n]��l��eL�1'�n�s=�/��{�������$R�����+��r3�h҆�m��p� Gk�Hː�z~bf�dq�Iܹ�m<6p�U���>�N�%���>?��?��(-��]3�ɢt�vMc#� Source: EIA Short -Term Energy Outlook, October 2018. EIA-3 Quarterly Survey of Industrial, Commercial & Institutional Coal Users (30-35 data elements, 1.25 hour) EIA-8A Annual Survey of Coal Stocks and Coal Exports (20 data elements, 1 hour) EIA-923 Power Plant Operations Report (40 data elements, 2.4 hours) EIA-846 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (number of questions 1960! 400! The monthly EIA & annual STEO forecasts display a bumpy production, difficult to extrapolate 0! 18-1584 & 18-1587 In The Supreme Court of the United States U.S. ForeST ServIce, eT al., Petitioners. 1980! 200! Mb! The U.S. already was a net exporter of coal, natural gas and natural gas liquids, and EIA projected the U.S. to become a net exporter of total energy (including oil) in 2019 EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook in November confirmed the finding per API’s estimates in the September Monthly Statistical Report EIA estimates Net imports Net exports September—August prices were down about 27 percent compared to 1 year prior. >> 1 September 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) at … %���� condensate ! 2 0 obj endobj BOEM/MMS Gulf of Mexico annual oil production 1947-2015! U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2021 1 Note: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on Thursday February 4, 2021 February 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook Forecast highlights Global liquid fuels • The February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue … Therefore, variables such as heating and cooling degree days are also heavily used in the forecasts. The Disclaimer: Energy Tidbits is intended to provide general information only and is written for an institutional or sophisticated investor audience. endobj STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Energy Supply and Demand Summary 2020 2021 2022 Year Growth Rate Current Forecast: March 9, 2021; Previous Forecast: February 9, 2021 The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) October 2020 Short—Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, indicates that oil markets remain stable with ample inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects OPEC crude oil production will average 25.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in April, which is similar to expected production for March and down 1.6 million b/d from EIA’s forecast for April OPEC production in last month’s STEO. T��P5�A���C}Q?4 BMh0�����0t6��A#�(ԌF�s�yh,�ƣ h����h&��B��Eh��桋�|� �-D�P+�]�.C��+Е�*t5Z,���_���'(��(����'���C����o� i�9�Ϳ�ߗ?�?�ߟ��W��E�������]�ޟߞߝگ�_B��=�����-���_ͷ�7���z[�O�����ч�����p����|ۑ�����^�g�ya`f� B����'T"��\g>Oޅ��߅�X��Km�⑅-��p�v�{��E��t�`�b0�QZ�y�ʏ�)�� �h ��ߢ�1A>U��n�! EIA forecasts residential sector retailsales will increase by 3.5 percent in 2020driven by higher summer cooling and increased working from home. <> 3 0 obj oil +condensate MMS!
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