Kaim, meanwhile, is convinced that Russia wishes to stay militarily involved in Syria for the time being and views the country as an outpost of Russian influence. Russiaâs military success in Syria over the past four years has shined a most unfavorable light on the assertion â made routinely by United Nations, US, and other Western diplomats â that there was âno military solutionâ to Syriaâs brutal civil war. Russia is unlikely to intervene on a scale comparable to the 2015 action in Syria in any of the other three countries examined in the reportâLibya, Yemen, and Afghanistan. Conflicting goals in Syria could push the nation away from Iran. Russia can enforce bilateral agreements, and, consequently, any such outcome further commits Russian forces to a conflict that it will have to manage for the foreseeable future. Although it cannot make Iran pull out of Syria completely, it can put some checks on it, using its own military presence. Russia has expanded its military base next to a local airfield near the city of Kobani in the north of Syria, according to newly released satellite images. Battle of Influence in Syria: Russia vs. Iran. The moves leave ⦠Conflicting signs from Russia enhance Iranian influence in southern Syria Fighters of the Eighth Brigade in their graduation ceremony in the town of Busra al-Sham in the western countryside of Daraa, 28/7/2020 (Horan Free League) Russia and Iran: Economic Influence in Syria. Russiaâs influence is growing in Syria, after the U.S. abruptly withdrew its troops in early October, leaving its former allies the Kurds vulnerable to attack by Turkey. The drivers for such an action are currently absent. Russia has insisted that the Gulf monarchies and other states aiding the anti-Assad insurgents are intervening in a civil war in violation of Syria's sovereign rights. Russiaâs recent machinations in Syria are a case in point. RussiaâSyria relations refers to the bilateral relationship between Russia and Syria.Russia has an embassy in Damascus and Syria has an embassy in Moscow.Russia enjoys a historically strong, stable, and friendly relationship with Syria, as it did until the Arab Spring with most of the Arab countries. Entrenched Iranian influence in Syria, and its documented practices of redrawing sectarian maps, suggests divergences between agreements sealed in ⦠This may be a minority opinion, but Moscow has made the case consistently and forcefully, insisting that the only hope for peace in Syria is a political settlement. Russia has taken two significant steps in the last fortnight that suggest their diplomatic engagement on Syria is less than sincere. Negotiating with Moscow is Washingtonâs best option. American options in Syria require making hard choices, lest the outcome maintains the status quo. Russiaâs influence dates back to the Soviet era. However, should the drivers that were present in Syria emerge, Russia is likely to increase its involvement. Russia is a toxic subject in the Beltway. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported in late June 2019 that, despite Russia's efforts to curb Iran's influence in Syria, the latter was continuing to consolidate its presence in the south and east of the country and in the Damascus region, and to recruit Syrians into its militias using religious propaganda and financial incentives. Russia's influence in Syria, Libya and Egypt has broadened its footprint in the Mediterranean, a strategic region that sits at the southern flank of ⦠Moscow and Tehran are jostling to wield main influence over government of President Bashar al-Assad, adding further complexity to still-far-from-complete endgame of Syria⦠By Michael Davis ⢠April 29, 2019 R ussia and Iran may have fought on the same side in Syriaâs civil war, but that does not mean they see eye to eye. Why Russia Is Expanding Its Influence in Syria WSJ's Gerald F. Seib explains why Russia is so eager to spread its influence in the Middle East. Russia's end goal has remained consistent: to preserve Assadâs regime and weaken U.S. influence in Syria, and the Middle East more broadly. The U.S. wants Russia to vacate its military bases in Syria, and it perceives the Russian presence in the Mediterranean as a challenge to NATO and finds it unacceptable. Fundamentally, Russia keeps pining for constructive engagement by the U.S., but Washington has no interest in working with Moscow. Russia plans to create other âoffshoreâ zones in Syria controlled by pro-Russian armed formations made up of rebels who have surrendered. Israel is the regionâs most capable military actor, whose influence on the world stage goes way beyond its small size. Al-monitor â Russia and Iran are taking every opportunity to increase their influence in Syria. Russia, Iran Maneuver for Influence in Syria Once-hidden Russian-Iranian disagreements over Syria are starting to surface. Russia: Hearts, minds and military power. AMMAN â Despite the widespread reports on a growing competition between Russia and Iran in Syria, in general, current developments in the southern Daraa province seem not only to undermine the hopeful idea of a conflict, but also support the opposite argument that ⦠Less clear is whether Russia will be able to translate gains on the battlefield into a stable political solution. But as Syria seeks to restore some independence of action and cut back on Iran's clout in the country, Tehran will naturally move to preserve its influence â but in doing so, it may end up antagonizing Syria, the Russians, or both, especially if it does so too assertively or quickly for Syria. Russia is in the process of cutting deals with a variety of actors in Syria. Moscow supported Syriaâs independence in 1946 and provided cultural and educational support; many current Syrian politicians and military officials were educated and trained in Russia. This strike in particular revealed some deeply concerning aspects of Russiaâs influence on the situation in Syria, and its relations with Israel in particular. The Syrian government had stopped issuing ⦠Russia's use of its Orthodox Church to win hearts and minds in Syria is, therefore, a tactic meant to appeal to Syria's Christian minority at a time when Iran's influence in the country has grown. Thanks to the expanded Russian military presence in Syria, Russia is now effectively Israelâs neighbor, critical to the latterâs ability to counter Iran and its proxies in Syria. The area was formerly occupied by the US military in the fight against the Islamic-State, before they were ordered to withdraw from the ⦠Chatham House, 2019. "Russiaâs increased political and military influence in Syria is making the United States search for compromises in the Syrian settlement," Shehata said. The most significant of them is the recent agreement with the Kurds, which is a critical component of restoring the Syrian governmentâs influence beyond the western half of the country. These are primarily areas in northeast Syria, where Russiaâs influence was strengthened after the Sochi Memorandum in October 2019. Sinan Hatahet Russia, which already exerted considerable political influence in Syria, holds sway over its foreign policy, military and security services. Chris Miller of The Fletcher School explains how Russian President Vladimir Putin has become a power broker in the region. They recently urged private security companies to open offices across Syria, offering young men large amounts of money to work for them amid deteriorating economic conditions and a lack of job opportunities in the Syrian regime-controlled areas. The talks lasted for 12 hours. Russia does its best to accommodate all of its partners in Syria. Seven years of war in Syria have created a complex battlefield that has drawn in global and regional powers. Shehata commented on the Friday meeting in Geneva between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry. It was a telling demonstration of how influence over the eight-year-old conflict in Syria has shifted from the United States to Russia. Photo: Getty Images Russia has secured the support of two more regional allies in its efforts to end the eight-year civil war in Syria as the United States' own approach has increasingly come under scrutiny. Once-hidden Russian-Iranian disagreements over Syria are starting to surface. For most of 2016 and 2017, T4 airbase served as a key forward base for Russia in its campaign against Islamic State, hosting numerous Russian aircraft and advisers. Both sides employ several tools in managing this competition, and Russia may exploit the Israeli attacks on Iranian militias in eastern Syria to attract militia members, without this indicating a Russian desire to completely remove Iranian influence from eastern Syria.
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